Incoming! … Space Weather (Update : October 30)

October 30, 2013   11:28:43 AM
2013-10-30 13:58   Geomagnetic Storm Coming
The forerunner protons seen in the solar wind data indicate a shock coming from the sun.   The shock, out in front of a CME, is expected October 31. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions should prevail then.
Back at the sun, relative calm since the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout yesterday.

Update :  October 29, 2013   7:44:03 PM
2013-10-29 22:03   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Region 1875, now making west limb passage, apparently produced at R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2154 UTC on October 29 (5:54 p.m. EDT). The analysis of the event is in the early stages just now. Watch for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity on October 31. Updates here.

Update :   October 28, 2013 11:16:37 AM
2013-10-28 20:08   Yet Another CME   (Coronal Mass Ejection )

Somnolent Region 1882 reawakened suddenly with an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout at 1515 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) today, October 28. An earth-directed CME left  the sun in the eruption, now expected to bring G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels on 31 October. The enhanced proton flux over the past 12 hours continues to register below S1 (Minor) levels. More here as things occur.

2013-10-28 14:52   Continued Activity…
Region 1875 produced a R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0203 UTC on October 28 (10:03 p.m. EDT October 27). Solar Radiation Storm levels are continuing a slow climb out of background levels as a result but remain below the S1 (Minor) threshold at this time.  The CME associated with this R3 event is still being assessed, but some geomagnetic storming on or around October 30 is likely based on initial model runs.  The magnitude of that storm is also still being assessed, but initial observations and modeling indicate severe storming is NOT expected.  Another R2 (Moderate) event followed the R3, again from Region 1875, but the CME associated with this later event does not look to be Earth-directed.  G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions are still expected in the near term from an earlier CME.  Stay tuned for updates.

2013-10-27 00:20   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Expected October 28 – R1 Activity Continues
R1 solar flare radio blackout activity continues with the bulk of events coming from Region 1882, the producer of the R3 (Strong) events from October 25.  A host of coronal mass ejections have been observed over the last several days, but to date, only G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are predicted for October 28 as a result.
These active regions are relatively stable in size and complexity, so the potential for continued activity remains into the foreseeable future.  Stay tuned for updates.
2013-10-26 00:11   Geomagnetic Storm Possible October 28.
The recent spectacular eruptions from Region 1882 belie the fact that the geomagnetic field is to be unaffected, at least for the next few days. Forecasters expect impacts from the first of the CMEs in about 72 hours, but things can change given the volatile nature of the three active centers on the solar disk. Possible G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels are forecast. Updates here as conditions unfold.

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