INCOMING! Solar Radiation Storm

2014-01-09 20:02   CME Has Arrived
The coronal mass ejection (CME), originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, was observed at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 1932 UTC (2:32 p.m. EST).  It’s too early to see much with respect to the magnetic structure of this CME, but short-term, high-confidence warnings will be issued as this event plays out.  The original forecast continues to be for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity on January 9 and 10.  Aurora watchers may be in luck for tonight.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, currently at S2 (Moderate) levels, is seeing a modest enhancement with this shock passage but remains below S3 (Strong) threshold at this time.  Updates here as this event unfolds.
 

 
2014-01-09 12:36   Awaiting CME Arrival
The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm peaked briefly just above the S3 (Strong) threshold but is now in decay and currently at S2 (Moderate) levels.  Enhancement back across the S3 level is possible with the anticipated coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival. The CME, originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, is now slightly overdue.  However, pre-arrival signatures from EPAM data on the ACE spacecraft still show this transient en route. G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity is still expected on January 9 and 10.  Updates here as this event unfolds.