2014-09-12 16:09 Right on time…
The second of the expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has arrived, and arrived in good agreement with the predicted arrival times. As expected, an initial looks shows this CME is stronger than the first. More to come as this event plays out but the forecast for G2 (Moderate) storming for September 12thand G3 (Strong) storming on the 13thstill looks to be reasonable. The solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption on September 10th has increased with the passage of this shock, as it often does, and we currently sit just above the S2 (Moderate) threshold.
2014-09-11 05:01 A Pair of CMEs
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterday’s R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights. Stay tuned for updates.
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2014-09-10 23:18 Recent R3 Solar Flare
Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 – Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC (Sep 10th at 01:45pm EDT). Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth lasted for a little more than an hour.
Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, however, further analysis is underway at this time.
Standby for more details.