"How serious are the underlying discrepancies?"

To:  Dave Harden

So how serious are the underlying discrepancies, AND what are you going to do about it ??

Why isn’t the requisite data being captured on which to do a meaningful analysis ??
In light of you acknowledgement that conjecture is the most of what you have, should that tired old refrain about billing cycles being the problem be regarded as anything other than disingenuous ??
Ted Noftall
Candidate for Mayor
City of Port Orange -2016

From: Harden, David [mailto:dharden@port-orange.org]
Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 2015 10:15 AM
To: Ted Noftall
Cc: Bob Ford; don@amlsfl.com; Drew Bastian; Green, Allen; Stiltner, Scott
Subject: RE: Impact of Meter Replacement Program
The facts for which there are data are (1) 10,517 accounts where the meters had been replaced were reviewed for metered water consumption three months before meter replacement and three months after replacement. For these 10,517 accounts the metered water consumption was 11.6% more after meter replacement than for the same period before meter replacement, and (2) total water consumption for the City was 0.9% less in 2014 than in 2012. I agree that everything else is conjecture. But all that aside, the other thing driving our meter replacement program is that our Sensus meters are failing and must be replaced.

From: Ted Noftall [mailto:Ted@tednoftall.com]
Sent: Thursday, July 30, 2015 5:29 PM
To: Harden, David
Cc: Bob Ford; don@amlsfl.com; Drew Bastian; Green, Allen; Scott Stiltner
Subject: RE: Impact of Meter Replacement Program
If you have any data to substantiate Burton & Associates conclusions on the meter replace program you need to make it available.
If the numbers you are repeating and the slide presentation on Tuesday evening only relate to potable water, And do not include reclaimed water consumption recordings ( as Burton stated was the case ) then what is the significance of the difference in rain fall between years, AND HOW has that significance been quantified ?
Absent any data and none has been produced to date it sounds to me that no one has a solid analysis regarding the meter replacement program, AND all you and Burton are offering is conjecture designed to paper over expenditures that the former Utilities Director warned would prove to be largely a waste of money. Conjecture irrespective of what you pay for it, is conjecture none the less Mr. Manager.
Public Utilities director Andy Neff was both honest and correct in expressing his open confusion as to the lack of positive revenue stream improvement following the multi millions that have been spent to date on the meter replacement program when he stated at Tuesday’s meeting ” we are not seeing a revenue stream reflective in the amount of meters replaced, and what is …. Frankly what is going on with that ? ”
Taxpayers deserve either an honest comprehensive analysis of the results achieved from the meter replacement expenditures, OR AN honest explanation as to why the requisite data was not compiled by your senior staff to facilitate such an analysis.
To paraphrase Mr. Neff. What is going on here Manager Harden ??
Ted Noftall
Candidate for Mayor
City of Port Orange -2016

From: Harden, David [mailto:dharden@port-orange.org]
Sent: Wednesday, July 29, 2015 10:02 AM
To: Noftall, Ted
Cc: City Council
Subject: Impact of Meter Replacement Program
My understanding of what Burton and Associates’ analysis revealed is as follows:
They looked as the consumption recorded by 10,517 accounts for three months before and after the meters were replaced.
For these 10,517 accounts, the recorded water consumption increased by 11.6%.
After adjustments for seasonality, elasticity of demand and other variables they estimated the annual gain in recorded water consumption at 8.1%.
The City’s actual experience, comparing water consumption for FY 2012 with FY 2014 has been a 0.9% decrease in water consumption.
Burton and Associates concluded that the benefits of the meter change out program have been offset by reductions in use “due to other demand drivers”. (i.e. in FY 2012 we received 41.68 inches of rainfall. In FY 2014 we received 58.38 inches)
In the presentation last evening Mr. Burnham stated that without the meter replacement program the City probably would have experienced a 7% decrease in water sales.


2 thoughts on “"How serious are the underlying discrepancies?"

  • August 6, 2015 at 2:06 pm

    Whew boy! This is one for the record books. If most of what Burton and Associates had to say about the meter replacement program was based on conjecture we have to wonder what the rest of the study was based on. One thing for sure, however, is that our tax-and-spend City Council now has an easy out for raising water and sewer rates. They can simply point to the conclusions of our high-priced consultants and say: “see, we don’t have a choice.”
    Raising rates is so much easier and simpler for them than concentrating on efficiency and cost-cutting.


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